What Is Polymarket & How Reliable Is It?
Polymarket is a decentralized, blockchain-based prediction platform where users trade contracts on real-world events including monetary policy moves .
With real-money stakes and transparent odds, it often captures emerging sentiment faster than traditional analysts.
As of early June, over 96% of participants expected a rate hold rising sharply to 98% by June 9 .
This overwhelming consensus reflects a firmly “hawkish patience” stance: no rate cuts, but also no aggressive hikes.
Why the Fed Is Likely to Hold
1. Persisting Inflation:
The Fed’s preferred core PCE metric remains above the 2% target (e.g., April at ~2.7%), indicating inflation is easing slowly .
2. **Solid Labour Market & GDP:**
First-quarter 2025 growth around 2.2% and historically low unemployment (≈3.8%) argue against premature rate easing .
3. **Fed Officials' Tone:**
Chair Powell and others have affirmed a cautious stance, stating inflation is “uncomfortably high” and readiness to pause until the path stabilizes .
Market & Economic Implications
📈 Financial Markets
Equities & Crypto: A rate hold removes near-term rate uncertainty. Markets tend to dislike surprises, so this consensus helps stabilize assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks .
Bond Yields: U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated (e.g., 10-year above 4.4%), reflecting investor expectation of sustained high rates .
🏠 Consumers & Borrowing Costs
Loans & Mortgages: Continued higher rates mean borrowing remains costly impacting mortgages, auto loans, and credit card rates.
Savings Returns: Higher interest rates benefit savers and certificates of deposit.
🌍 Global Ramifications
Emerging Markets: Many face capital outflows when U.S. rates remain high, impacting their financing costs and currencies.
Global Policy Synchronization: Central banks like ECB and BOE closely monitor the Fed’s stance when planning their own strategies.
The Path Ahead
Press Conference: Markets will tune into Jerome Powell’s June 19 press conference for hints regarding rate cut debates his tone could influence expectations .
Future Meetings: Polymarket’s window on July shows ~87–84% odds for another hold, suggesting further caution .
Macro Data Watch: Key indicators like PCE, CPI reports, and employment data in Q3 will crucially shape the Fed’s next moves.
Final Takeaway
With Polymarket signaling a 98% probability of no rate cut on June 19 and Fed officials underscoring persistent inflation and solid growth the consensus is clear: a rate hold is the most probable outcome. Market participants anticipate a cautious Fed, one that prioritizes data over quick easing even as global and domestic economic pressures build.
source : Polymarket, Federal Reserve, dan laporan pasar dari Bloomberg & CNBC.